History of the Future

My best guesses are based on the historical past. Chances are, based on what? What happened before most often happens again, unless an outlying unknown variable comes into play. Through the use of monitoring past conditions, predictions are made based on previous performance. Relating or normalizing trends can help identify causes and potential situational outcomes.

I would use the many tools developed to help in the monitoring of our world such as barometers or thermometers which will help us gather a statistical body of evidence from which to draw upon. We need at least several comparable scales of data, such as at least 3 complete years of annual financial reports to produce a pro forma and graph potential business performance. You can only truly measure history, the future in unforeseen. The basis of the scientific method is making an educated guess or inference and gathering information to either prove or disprove ones theory. This is all based on logical consequences, and thus a good idea to employ. Statistical inference is a big part of prediction. The outcome produced is a set of probabilities, based on the information available. They fall short of accounting for unknowable situations.

The only certainty is uncertainty. Whether forming a qualitative or quantitative analysis, in the end they are just guesses. Opinion polls are based on changing intangible data that end up with very pie in the sky results. Knowledgeable people often attempt to guess the future by employing sound reasoning based on accurate data. To commit to one potential future is the best way to be wrong. Certainty limits ones vision of probabilities. It can make ones point irrelevant. Prophecies can come true because we are aware of them, thus they are. We can create a path to fit an image or form the future to fit in the way we thought, using cognitive dissonance or intentionally. The best course of action is to make the best decisions for the moment we live in, as the future is just that.